Gender war: Historic male-female gap defines Harris v. Trump

The gender gap is getting wider and deeper − and more powerful.
The differences between how men and women view the state of the nation, the issues that matter, and the candidates is the defining divide in American politics today, shaping the outcome of the presidential race now just 10 days away.
In the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll, women decisively backed Democrat Kamala Harris, 53% to 36%. That’s a mirror image of men’s overwhelming support for Republican Donald Trump, 53% to 37%. If those margins hold until Election Day, it would be the biggest disparity since a gender gap emerged more than four decades ago, in 1980.
This year, the gender gap has become significant among Latino and Black voters as well as white voters.
Some of those surveyed have seen the divide within their own families.
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“This is a very hard topic, like, it hits strong for me,” said Vanessa Carmona, 48, of Pasadena, California, who was called in the poll. To her husband, “it just makes financial sense for a Republican to be in office,” but she sees reproductive rights as the most important issue, in part because of her own experiences. “Knowing our history with having a miscarriage and going through that − that’s when I literally broke down and cried. I’m like, ‘I cannot even believe you’re saying this right now, with what we went through.'”
A confluence of factors help explain the divide: From the start of his political career, Trump has held a disproportionate appeal to men; his muscular policy stances have appealed to some men and his sometimes-offensive rhetoric has repelled some women. Harris’ nomination as a woman of color is historic and a draw for some women. And the Supreme Court decision in 2022 overturning Roe v. Wade has spotlighted abortion rights, one that resonates more strongly with women.
Here’s what we’ve found about the nation’s political wars by gender in our national and state polling.
Trump’s unexpectedly strong appeal to Latino men has created a significant gender gap among a demographic group that had been solidly Democratic.
In a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters in the swing state of Arizona, women supported Harris by an overwhelming 40 percentage points (68% to 28%), while men backed Trump by a narrow 2 points (48% to 46%.)
That disparity is well outside the margin of error of plus or minus about 6 percentage points for looking at the results by gender.
Nevada, another swing state, showed a similar trend. The USA TODAY/Suffolk poll of Hispanics showed women supporting Harris by 39 points (68% to 29%), while men backed Trump by 6 points (50% to 44%).
The Arizona and Nevada polls of 500 self-identified Hispanic voters in each state were taken from Sept. 27 to Oct. 2 by landline and cellphone.
Black voters continue to support Democrats by overwhelming margins, but Trump has made inroads among Black men.
In a USA TODAY/Suffolk poll of Black voters in Michigan, women supported Harris by 72 points, with Trump scoring a negligible 4 points. But 13% of Black men supported Trump, eroding Harris’ advantage to 53 points − still a huge edge, but a lower margin that Democrats have counted on among the party’s most loyal supporters.
George Powell, 30, a Black voter from Lansing, Michigan, is a Democrat, but he hasn’t firmly settled on a candidate.
“I think Kamala, but I’m not sure,” the machine operator said in a interview after being surveyed in the national poll. “I feel like she’s the better option, but I’m not big on either candidate.”
In Pennsylvania, the Black gender gap was even wider.
Women backed Harris by 71 points (78% to 7%), a USA TODAY/Suffolk poll of Black voters found, while men supported her by 48 points, with Harris at 63% and Trump at 15%.
The polls of 500 Black voters in each state were taken Aug. 11 to 14 by landline and cellphone. The margin of error for the analysis by gender is about 6 points.
Men and women alike volunteer that the economy and inflation are the most important issues this year, though men rank it higher, at 34% compared with 26% for women.
After that, the disagreements begin.
Women rate abortion and women’s rights a strong second, at 17%.
Men rank abortion and women’s rights at a distant seventh, cited by only 2%. It trailed immigration, democracy, honesty/integrity, policy positions and foreign affairs.
The national poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cellphone Oct. 14 to 18, has an error margin of 3.1 points.
Are men welcome in the Democratic Party? Are women welcome in the GOP?
Voters are divided on that.
In the national USA TODAY poll, those surveyed split 45% yes, 44% no when asked if the Democratic Party cared more about issues of concern to women versus men. The divide was 43% yes, 48% no, when asked if the Republican Party cared more about issues of concern to men versus women.
One group was particularly likely to see the GOP as a boys’ club: Three-fourths of Harris voters said Republicans cared more about issues of concern to men.
The whole debate can be fraught.
“We just don’t discuss it,” said Denise Oberlies, 59, a Republican and a Trump supporter from Smithtown, New York, when asked if she has noticed a political gender gap among her colleagues at work. “If I want to continue friendships and, you know, work relations, you have to, to a certain degree, just not discuss certain things with certain people.”